More than 400 Ukrainians have lost their lives due to ongoing attacks by Russia since the passing of former Senator Lindsey Graham. Before his death, Senator Graham lobbied intensively to sharply increase sanctions on Russia in hopes of ending this conflict. Unfortunately, elements of the legislation, now known as the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, that is barreling its way through the House after passing the Senate, are so deeply flawed that they undercut his vision of peace for Ukraine.
Most concerning is a provision that gives the President new authority to place tariffs of up to 100% on goods from trading partners that are among the five largest importers of Russian oil or gas, or otherwise help Russia evade sanctions. The authority, known as “secondary tariffs,” is cloaked as targeted sanctions intended to deter and punish countries for engaging in activities that support Russia but, in reality, would hand the President broad new legal cover to impose tariffs on America’s allies and major trading partners.
As currently written, the bill ensures there will always be a list of “top five” countries to be tariffed, while failing to clearly describe how these rankings will be calculated or how countries can either have tariffs removed or avoid being named in the first place. Different sources suggest Brazil, India, Japan and countries in the EU all rank among the largest purchasers and thus could all be subject to new tariffs at the President’s discretion. In fact, Ukraine depends on imports of refined petroleum products from EU countries that could have originated in Russia. If the secondary tariffs succeed in getting these countries to cut off Russian oil or gas, Ukraine may struggle to meet its energy needs. There are also no clear criteria for objectively measuring a country’s facilitation of sanctions evasion by individual parties and their supporters in other geographies. Russia’s success in evading sanctions and export controls has relied on vast networks across many countries.
These tariffs also undermine our ability to work multilaterally to deter certain behaviors. For example, an important objective of this bill is to stop Russia’s “shadow fleet” of vessels that clandestinely move oil and liquid natural gas, evade sanctions, and most importantly, fund continued aggression. Achieving this requires coordinated maritime enforcement, international intelligence-sharing, and joint sanctions built on diplomatic relationships and trust between partners and allies. The threat of secondary tariffs against our allies undermines the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts to reach consensus on coordinated multilateral efforts.
This bill also incorporates the “STOP China and Russia Act,” which targets China’s support for Russia’s procurement of militarily useful goods and technology by imposing sanctions on Chinese bad actors. Ironically, the sanctions on Chinese bad actors include sunset provisions, while the secondary tariffs do not. This section of the bill calls for diplomatic coordination with allies and partners – some of whom could themselves become subject to the bill’s secondary tariffs, further jeopardizing diplomatic engagement.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. built the Global Export Controls Coalition (GECC), a group of 40 countries including the G7 and EU, that coordinated export controls and sanctions against Russia, successfully cutting off access to dual-use goods. Threatening members of the GECC with secondary tariffs undermines this cooperation, including support for future enforcement actions. A more effective course of action would include specifically and comprehensively targeting Russian military capabilities through multilateral information-sharing and coordinated enforcement.
It’s hard to imagine Senator Graham supporting an outcome where America’s allies and potentially even Ukraine could be subject to the effects of crippling tariffs rather than being laser-focused on the Russian oligarchs and government officials who continue to enable the murderous campaign against civilian targets in Ukraine. The tariff provisions in this bill threaten a cascade of unintended consequences that could inflict significant harm on the Ukrainian people and our allies.
Despite the best of intentions and highest of hopes, economic pressure alone will not end Russian aggression in Ukraine and, if used on America’s allies, might inadvertently support the continuation of an already protracted conflict. The people of Ukraine need real, meaningful assistance to bring a swift and decisive end to their suffering. Senator Graham’s memory deserves better than a rushed bill that undermines its own stated objectives and leaves Ukraine and its people even more vulnerable.
Jeannette Chu is Vice President for National Security Policy at the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC). Before NFTC, Jeannette spent 31 years in public service as a diplomat and law enforcement officer, including working on export controls and sanctions policy.
